|
Post by spaceflower on May 26, 2019 20:02:22 GMT
EU-citizens, have you voted?
I voted today.
The most important question for me is enviroment and climate crisis.
|
|
|
Post by JoeP on May 26, 2019 21:07:16 GMT
Brits voted on Thursday. Probably most of us treated it as a referendum on Brexit, rather than a vote on matters actually important to Europe.
Lots of citizens of other EU countries resident in Britain were unable to vote due to bureaucratic cockups by the local authorities - which I can't help feeling were partly malicious (and partly a result of the chronic underfunding of local authorities by the fat cats).
|
|
|
Post by Moose on May 27, 2019 0:27:13 GMT
Am distressed but not really surprised at how well Farage is doing.
|
|
|
Post by tangent on May 27, 2019 17:15:52 GMT
When you compare Leave votes with Remain votes* you find that Remain votes easily outnumber Leave votes. Brexit | 31.6% | Liberal Democrats | 20.3% | Labour | 14.1% | Green | 12.09% | Conservative | 9.09% | Scottish Nationalist Party | 3.6% | Plaid Cymru | 1.0% | Change UK | 3.4% | UKIP | 3.3% |
* Leave votes: Brexit plus UKIP Remain votes: Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Change UK Leave votes: | 34.9% | Remain votes: | 40.4% |
Discounting Conservative and Labour votes, the result is 46% to Leave versus 54% to Remain.
|
|
|
Post by JoeP on May 27, 2019 17:55:48 GMT
"But 54% isn't significant"
|
|
|
Post by tangent on May 27, 2019 18:23:17 GMT
The above post will probably be eclipsed by the reckoning that, "the Brexit party won the election."
|
|
|
Post by JoeP on May 27, 2019 19:44:18 GMT
On the other hand, UKIP came close to bottom, proving that only 3% of the country actually want the UK to be independent.
|
|
|
Post by Moose on May 28, 2019 2:43:36 GMT
Depressingly those a lot of the Remain vote was in Scotland.
|
|
|
Post by JoeP on May 28, 2019 7:18:04 GMT
And in London.
|
|
|
Post by tangent on May 28, 2019 10:52:19 GMT
Why is that depressing? The rest of the country still favours remaining in the EU, though with not such a clear majority.
|
|
|
Post by JoeP on May 28, 2019 11:17:04 GMT
This is depressing: this table Vote share by Brexit position groups Labour and Conservative as pro-Brexit "with a withdrawal agreement" and thus calculates a majority for Brexit (but not, of course, an agreement on what Brexit means).
|
|
|
Post by tangent on May 28, 2019 15:26:18 GMT
Your link compares parties and not voter intentions and is very much out-of-line with a YouGov opinion poll* a few days before the election. I read a BBC analysis* which said that voters who intended to vote Conservative were asked whether they supported Leave or Remain and were split 50:50. Furthermore, voters who intended to vote Labour were split 75:25 in favour of Remain. One can assume that most of Scotland and Wales would have voted for Brexit if they favoured Leave or SNP/Plaid Cymru if they favoured Remain. With these assumptions, my estimate for the split between Leave and Remain is as follows. Party | Share of vote | Leave votes | Remain votes | Brexit | 31.6% | 31.6% | 0% | Liberal Democrats | 20.3% | 0% | 20.3% | Labour | 14.1% | 3.5% | 10.6% | Green | 12.1% | 0% | 12.1% | Conservative | 9.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | Scottish Nationalist Party | 3.6% | 0.9% | 2.7% | Plaid Cymru | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | Change UK | 3.4% | 0% | 3.4% | UKIP | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0% | Total | - | 44.2% | 54.3% |
* I think it was YouGov and the BBC, I'll try to find the link. ETA: I see that, in your link above, Polly Toynbee assigns 80% of Conservatives voters to Leave and 60% of Labour voters to Remain but I think the basis for her supposition is dubious.
|
|
|
Post by ceptimus on May 28, 2019 23:32:49 GMT
There are also people who voted Green because of concern over climate change, over-use of plastics, etc. who would vote to leave the EU. Probably not a high proportion, but still. Similarly, there are a few committed Lib-Dem voters who support leave.
Also you need to factor in that a bigger proportion of leave supporters didn't vote in this election - they were disgusted that they were being asked to vote at all in an election that they'd been promised would never happen - and to select people to sit in an institution that they don't wish to belong to.
When you take those effects into account, the prediction for the outcome of a second leave/remain referendum is still too close to call - as someone once said, "Nothing has changed!"
|
|
|
Post by Moose on May 29, 2019 0:18:26 GMT
Yes - although another referendum is looking unlikely at the moment. But it's perfectly possible that Leave might win a second time.
|
|
|
Post by tangent on May 29, 2019 6:09:04 GMT
That is unfortunately true.
|
|
|
Post by spaceflower on Jun 3, 2019 2:40:45 GMT
How much do you know about EU? A quiz for beginners and advanced: www.european-elections.eu/quiz10/12 for me (beginners) But I admit I some guessing, especially about figures
|
|
|
Post by JoeP on Jun 3, 2019 7:51:39 GMT
I got 9/12. Hmm.
|
|
|
Post by ceptimus on Jun 3, 2019 12:32:58 GMT
I got 11/12 on beginner and 10/12 on expert which didn't seem any harder to me.
|
|
|
Post by tangent on Jun 3, 2019 15:22:44 GMT
I got 8/12 (beginners), 4/12 (expert).
|
|
|
Post by spaceflower on Jun 3, 2019 15:26:25 GMT
9/12 expert level but I guessed sometimes
|
|
|
Post by ceptimus on Jun 3, 2019 15:31:17 GMT
Oh yes. I made quite a few lucky guesses - if my luck had gone the other way I could have scored much lower.
|
|
|
Post by tangent on Jun 3, 2019 17:53:21 GMT
I knew Helsinki and Tallinn were pretty close (82km) but I didn't know Bratislava and Vienna were even closer (64km). I think I deserve half a point there.
I should have got Geneva not being home to an EU institution or agency because Switzerland isn't in the EU.
|
|
|
Post by Alvamiga on Jun 10, 2019 14:13:00 GMT
...(but not, of course, an agreement on what Brexit means). As we all know by now, Brexit means Brexit.
|
|
|
Post by kingedmund on Jun 14, 2019 0:20:16 GMT
It won’t let me take he quiz but I bet it’s 3/12 or the lower score.
|
|