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Post by tangent on Feb 7, 2020 22:08:41 GMT
I've been checking the news about the novel corona virus almost daily and have found this link to be a mine of up-to-date information, especially since people seem to update it every three minutes or so: 2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak - WikipediaEarlier today, there was one particular table I was interested in and I wondered how it had changed from yesterday. What a pity I hadn't take a note of it. And then I remembered the American archiving website, www.archive.org. Perhaps they had archived an earlier copy of the table. So I looked it up: and typed in the address. Lo and behold, archive.org had archived the webpage 270 times in the past two weeks, up to 37 times a day! And I did find yesterday's table Edited to correct the link.
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Deleted
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Covid-19
Feb 8, 2020 9:45:34 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2020 9:45:34 GMT
I've been checking the news about the novel corona virus almost daily and have found this link to be a mine of up-to-date information, especially since people seem to update it every three minutes or so: 2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak - Wikipediayour link has been brought down by the virus
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Post by tangent on Feb 8, 2020 12:52:50 GMT
Oh dear, yes, I've disinfected it now.
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Post by JoeP on Feb 8, 2020 12:55:01 GMT
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Post by JoeP on Feb 8, 2020 12:55:28 GMT
Ha, he was on the ball.
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Post by kingedmund on Feb 14, 2020 18:04:45 GMT
I’ve been tracking it and doing my own projections.
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Post by tangent on Feb 15, 2020 0:40:13 GMT
I’ve been tracking it and doing my own projections. I have also been tracking it but I find it's too early to make predictions. Numbers of new cases in China are too unreliable to make any useful predictions and so I have been looking at cases outside China. Interestingly, although the number of cases is increasing, they are increasing linearly and not exponentially. This suggests to me that authorities are controlling the spread of the disease. On the other hand, it only takes a couple of super spreaders to infect a large number of people in any one country (as happened in Canada in the SARS outbreak in 2003) and that would make a pandemic much more likely. So, I say it is too early to make predictions. Edited to add: What this graph doesn't show is the number of people who have recovered from the disease. Likewise, it does not show the number of extant cases of people who are infected. I shall work on that tomorrow. In fact there has only been an increase of 56 extant cases outside China during the past week (not including the Diamond Princess). This suggests that, barring any accidental activity from super spreaders and assuming there is no change in the control of the disease, the number of extant cases in three months time will have risen only by a factor of three. I find that comforting.
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Post by JoeP on Feb 15, 2020 10:53:27 GMT
Could someone edit the title of this thread?
It's not the crow flu.
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Post by tangent on Feb 15, 2020 11:09:33 GMT
Yes, done that.
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Post by Miisa on Feb 15, 2020 11:40:30 GMT
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Post by kingedmund on Feb 21, 2020 14:25:27 GMT
Interesting.
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Covid-19
Feb 26, 2020 9:13:50 GMT
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Post by juju on Feb 26, 2020 9:13:50 GMT
Hmmm. It seems the WHO are now fearing a pandemic, and the two week quarantine period does not seem to be long enough. There are now reports of the incubation period being a lot longer. www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/coronavirus-study-incubation-period/This is worrying as it suggests wrong advice is being given. For example, I know someone whose husband has just returned from Korea (although not the worst affected area). He was tested at the airport - no fever. But that is not to say that he won’t go on to develop one within 24 days. He may have already passed it to her, and she is going to work every day... it’s easy to see how difficult it will be to contain this.
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Post by JoeP on Feb 26, 2020 10:54:07 GMT
A 14-day incubation period is already long enough to cause significant worry - a longer period just makes that worse.
On the slightly more positive side, the fatality rate is not that high, and people are racing to develop vaccines. The real, and probably now unavoidable, impact will be on work and production affected by preventative travel restrictions, and of course on the health services in countries where confirmed cases climb.
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Covid-19
Feb 26, 2020 11:56:57 GMT
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Post by juju on Feb 26, 2020 11:56:57 GMT
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Post by whollygoats on Feb 26, 2020 23:15:14 GMT
Hmmm. It seems the WHO are now fearing a pandemic, and the two week quarantine period does not seem to be long enough. There are now reports of the incubation period being a lot longer. www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/coronavirus-study-incubation-period/This is worrying as it suggests wrong advice is being given. For example, I know someone whose husband has just returned from Korea (although not the worst affected area). He was tested at the airport - no fever. But that is not to say that he won’t go on to develop one within 24 days. He may have already passed it to her, and she is going to work every day... it’s easy to see how difficult it will be to contain this. Incubation period could be veiled...that is, during the incubation period, a carrier could contagious without symptoms. If it requires the symptoms (fever, congestion, cough and sneeze, aches) to manifest before it is contagious, then it is much easier to control. But, if it spreads before symptomology, then it is far more robust in terms of its transmission. (This is the problem with measles, they spread before there are noticeable symptoms; easily.) Then, from what I am hearing, nine out of ten infected with Covid-19 have mild symptomology, but the tenth gets hit with a life-threatening whammy (percentages pulled outta my ass). Why? What makes for the differential?
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Post by whollygoats on Feb 26, 2020 23:55:25 GMT
This reporting what I understand to be the current situation: www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-covid-19And, my prior question still stands. It seems that it is one in 50 that gets the mortality whammy with this virus. And, I note that I am in the priority target sector as an immune-compromised elder male. Fun.
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Post by whollygoats on Feb 26, 2020 23:59:32 GMT
SOP - SNAFU. If you think that is bad....Our feces-slinging orange baboon-ass faced nitwit in the White House fired the entire CDC pandemic response team last year and failed to replace them. I'm convinced the fuckwit is just waiting for some natural disaster to incite civil disorder so he can impose martial law. He repeats this kind of moronic behavior. Anyway, our administration is backpedalling as fast as they can while the tap-dance on the world stage.
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Post by Elis on Feb 28, 2020 10:38:49 GMT
I find it hard to tell how serious it is.
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Covid-19
Feb 28, 2020 11:35:10 GMT
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Post by tangent on Feb 28, 2020 11:35:10 GMT
Likewise, I'm uncertain, but with it being out of control in South Korea, Italy and Iran, it is only a matter of time, I think, before it becomes a pandemic, and then it will be very serious.
I'm pretty sure both the UK and Germany will be able to delay the spread of the disease but who knows for how long.
I suggested to our vicar on Tuesday that we should have a strategy in place because a Communion service could infect an awful lot of people (as it did in South Korea) and yesterday he asked me to buy four large bottles of hand sanitizer gel. Unfortunately, it is all sold out, which means many organisations are already preparing for the disease. We have some on order that might arrive before the next but one service.
Eleven years ago, when swine flu spread throughout the country, we modified our services to cut down the risk of infection. But this time, I think it's more likely we will cancel them. Not yet, though, because we don't want to spread panic. The nearest Covid-19 case is in Buxton, which is 15 miles away.
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Covid-19
Feb 28, 2020 13:30:39 GMT
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Post by juju on Feb 28, 2020 13:30:39 GMT
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Post by Mari on Feb 28, 2020 15:05:25 GMT
From what I understand it's basically a severe flu. Very contagious, but only lethal to certain groups. Like WG, I'm in the risk-group, but it's not like I can just not go to work through public transport or anything, so I'll just have to wait and see.
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Post by whollygoats on Feb 28, 2020 15:07:22 GMT
I find it hard to tell how serious it is. What I am hearing is that it is three times as infectious, and 10-20 times as deadly as typical ILI viruses that cause 'the flu'.
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Covid-19
Feb 28, 2020 17:08:32 GMT
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Post by tangent on Feb 28, 2020 17:08:32 GMT
I find it hard to tell how serious it is. What I am hearing is that it is three times as infectious, and 10-20 times as deadly as typical ILI viruses that cause 'the flu'. That might be a little pessimistic. This website, www.popsci.com/story/health/how-diseases-spread/Says that it is between 1.2 and 3.3 times more infectious than ordinary flu (it's too early to be precise). Elsewhere, I've seen a preliminary mortality rate of about 1%, which is between seven and ten times more deadly than ordinary flu. But that's 1% of those with known symptoms. One in five people have only mild symptoms and they may not feature in the mortality rate. My gut feeling is that Covid-19 will be no more serious than ordinary flu for the general population but will be very serious for older people. Men with diabetes are especially at risk.
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Covid-19
Feb 28, 2020 17:56:00 GMT
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Post by juju on Feb 28, 2020 17:56:00 GMT
Most reports I’ve read put the mortality rate at 2%. In Italy there have been 400 reported cases and 12 deaths, so that’s 3%?
I’ve also read that it’s unlikely that they are missing many with mild symptoms because the publicity/panic is such that people in affected areas are likely to get tested even with few symptoms.
I just hope it behaves like seasonal flu and diminishes during the summer months, allowing a vaccine to be developed before next winter.
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Post by whollygoats on Feb 28, 2020 18:12:40 GMT
Yes, the data is spotty everywhere and sources closer to China are reinforcing their warnings about the relatively high level, 2%, of associated mortality.
Even a year may be optimistic on a vaccine and then, such a vaccine will be untested. So....Shot in the dark.
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Covid-19
Feb 29, 2020 6:19:30 GMT
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Post by Elis on Feb 29, 2020 6:19:30 GMT
We have actually begun stocking up on food now since there are quite a few people who have been ordered to stay at home for 14 days since they have been im contact with someone who had the virus. Hat would be a nightmare for us with little Malcolm.
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Post by tangent on Feb 29, 2020 7:20:53 GMT
Even a year may be optimistic on a vaccine... Indeed, I have seen a year to eighteen months quoted. The mortality rate of 1% I gave above is not my own figure, it is something I have seen quoted fairly recently. The original 2% mortality rate was based on early Covid-19 cases. But the numbers of Chinese cases are thought to have been underestimated by a factor of between 5 and 40 and so the estimated mortality rate would have been very unreliable. Much more reliable are the figures for the Diamond Princess, which have been stable for quite a few days, giving time for victims to die. There have in fact been only six deaths out of 705 cases, which gives a mortality rate of 0.85%. Moreover, passengers on cruise liners are, on average, eight years older than the average UK population, suggesting they would be more vulnerable to the disease. We have actually begun stocking up on food now since there are quite a few people who have been ordered to stay at home for 14 days since they have been im contact with someone who had the virus. Very wise.
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Covid-19
Feb 29, 2020 8:32:09 GMT
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Post by Elis on Feb 29, 2020 8:32:09 GMT
I'm hoping we won't really end up being put in quarantine. But now there are more and more news. Two people I know (but am in contact with in a chat group only since they live in southern Germany have apparently been exposed to it at their workplace. Someone from the same chat group went to the Willow Creek Congress in Karlsruhe and it was stopped early because one of the pastors who was speaking there was diagnosed with it. So far I haven't heard of a case in Bremen, so we're going to just live life as usually, hoping we won't be exposed to it.
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Post by tangent on Feb 29, 2020 17:51:14 GMT
We have actually begun stocking up on food now since there are quite a few people who have been ordered to stay at home for 14 days since they have been im contact with someone who had the virus. Hat would be a nightmare for us with little Malcolm. We decided it was such a good idea, we would stock up on food before everyone starts panic buying. Although, I dare say the items I bought were not carefully planned.
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Post by whollygoats on Feb 29, 2020 18:09:57 GMT
Yeah...I had to go to the grocery, as per usual. I usually don't go on Saturday mornings, but limit myself to weekday mornings, when it is really quiet.
Well, there were a LOT of folks at the grocery at 8 am. And folks were filling big baskets (not like I did, using a small cart). It looked like panic buying to me.
This, of course followed the anouncement Thursday of a confirmed infection in Seattle (250 miles north) and then, Friday came the announcement that there was a confirmed case right here in Puddle City. It has arrived.
Covid-19 is in town.
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