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Post by spaceflower on Mar 8, 2020 22:47:16 GMT
Should I isolate myself? No, I won't, even though I belong to the "risk group". I will continue going to exercise, library, grocery.
My daughter has returned to London. She wonders if she should visit me or not? She has recently been to Rome but is well. Italy seems scary: Now 7375 infected and 366 dead.
As for vaccines, I don't think there will be any before this covid-19 has passed. Maybe good for the next pandemi. People travel so much these days and so do diseases. Is there any place on earth without this covid-19? Greenland?
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Post by kingedmund on Mar 10, 2020 4:28:11 GMT
Yikes! I’m not taking a trip just in case it gets worse!
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Covid-19
Mar 10, 2020 10:29:13 GMT
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Post by tangent on Mar 10, 2020 10:29:13 GMT
Is there any place on earth without this covid-19? Greenland? Most of Africa has not reported any cases.
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Post by spaceflower on Mar 10, 2020 11:55:16 GMT
I wonder. It may be that the health care is not that developed so no tests. People get ill and well again or die and nobody knows if it was the ordinary flu or covid-19.
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Post by JoeP on Mar 10, 2020 12:06:27 GMT
This site www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries lists only countries with some cases, but I see that Nepal and Sri Lanka have no active cases and just 1 ever (recovered). Macao also has no active cases, but 10 who have recovered.
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Post by whollygoats on Mar 10, 2020 15:36:41 GMT
My understanding is that the US probably has significant numbers of unreported cases because there are not enough readily available tests.
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Post by tangent on Mar 10, 2020 18:27:57 GMT
I understand that, although testing for Covid-19 itself is free in the US, there are residual costs involved with both testing and treating a patient, which may or may not be covered by a person's medical insurance. This suggests that many people, especially those without insurance, will not want to be tested let alone allow themselves to be placed in quarantine. And since only one in five people will have severe symptoms of the disease, that might be a prudent decision for poor people.
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Post by whollygoats on Mar 11, 2020 2:29:45 GMT
"Free" is a pointless label when you cannot even obtain a test. The state in which I live was recently allocated its allotment of test kits. All 1,500 of them.
That's to assess the extent of the problem in a state of more than three million people.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2020 5:27:25 GMT
Some thoughts on maintaining your physical and mental well-being in the event of having to spend more time than usual at home due to the coronavirus. Try to keep to a regular schedule. Get up and go to bed at normal times. Organise your day according to specifics tasks. Try to keep to a routine. You might find you're eating less. That's OK as long as you're satisfied. Don't starve yourself. Eat healthily. Exercise is important for a healthy body. Introduce light exercises at home that you can do every day (maybe even several times a day). There are many videos on YouTube you can follow at your own pace. I do core strength exercises for runners and stretch exercises for my dodgy back. Takes about half an hour. It doesn't have to be painful Living in shared space for a long duration can cause friction. Try to ensure you have some uninterrupted time alone to release any mental tension. Finally, if you are able to go out, why not take a short walk? You don't have to go far. Just be mindful.
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Post by tangent on Mar 11, 2020 12:32:00 GMT
The state in which I live was recently allocated its allotment of test kits. All 1,500 of them. That's to assess the extent of the problem in a state of more than three million people. The NHS is currently testing 1,500 patients per day for the virus but it is increasing its capacity to 10,000. Let's hope the accuracy of the test kits it a lot better that their Maths.
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Post by ceptimus on Mar 11, 2020 17:13:28 GMT
Governments expect that they won't be able to stop the spread, and they don't expect a vaccine to be developed soon enough. So they want the majority of the population (60% to 80%) to catch the disease over the next few months, and providing the virus doesn't mutate, survivors will then be immune, and we can get back to normal.
This is why the governments are not closing schools, stopping flights, and so on - yet. They don't want the whole country in lockdown for weeks while there are very few people infected. Once the target level of infection is obtained, they will implement controls to attempt to prevent medical facilities from being completely overwhelmed, but not such strict controls that the spread will be halted. Their aim is to get the majority of people infected and recovered (or dead) over the next six months or so, rather than dragging it out for a year or more. The ideal scenario they're aiming for is to ramp up the number of infected people to a level that can just about be coped with, and then keep steadily at that level till the majority have been exposed to the disease.
It seems harsh and uncaring, but is actually the most logical way to handle the disease (given, as I said, that there is no prospect of developing a vaccine soon enough).
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Post by tangent on Mar 11, 2020 17:27:36 GMT
That's not what China is doing. They have introduced drastic measures to bring the virus under control and there are now only a few cases per day (Hubei province, 11 cases per day currently). Hubei province has a population of 58.5 million. At this rate, 4000 more people will be infected with the disease in the next 12 months, leaving another 58.4 million still open to infection.
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Post by ceptimus on Mar 11, 2020 17:53:24 GMT
I suppose if there is a way to get the numbers really low, but still allow people to work and live until a vaccine is made, that's another option. Maybe that's what China is doing now. I'm not confident that Western governments think they can manage the same trick - at least, their actions seem to indicate that it's not what they're aiming for.
If any country in the west wished to pursue a 'near eradication' policy, there was nothing to stop them trying that a month or so back - close borders and implement rigorous quarantine controls for any people that must enter the country while stamping down hard on any outbreaks. No country has even tried that approach, as far as I can see. Maybe China has a sufficient level of social control over its citizens to manage such a process, but Western governments believe they would be met with riots or worse, if they tried it?
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Post by tangent on Mar 12, 2020 0:12:23 GMT
Governments expect that they won't be able to stop the spread, and they don't expect a vaccine to be developed soon enough. So they want the majority of the population (60% to 80%) to catch the disease over the next few months, and providing the virus doesn't mutate, survivors will then be immune, and we can get back to normal. This is why the governments are not closing schools, stopping flights, and so on - yet. They don't want the whole country in lockdown for weeks while there are very few people infected. Once the target level of infection is obtained, they will implement controls to attempt to prevent medical facilities from being completely overwhelmed, but not such strict controls that the spread will be halted. Their aim is to get the majority of people infected and recovered (or dead) over the next six months or so, rather than dragging it out for a year or more. The ideal scenario they're aiming for is to ramp up the number of infected people to a level that can just about be coped with, and then keep steadily at that level till the majority have been exposed to the disease. I didn't properly read your post the first time round, sorry. I'll have another go. What you're suggesting sounds feasible but it does mean that half a million people in the UK would be critically ill at any one time and would therefore have to look after themselves at home or in a care home. There are 148k hospital beds in the UK in total and 382k care home beds but only a small proportion of those could be used to care for critically ill patients. I think it's more likely the government will aim for a much smaller number of infections, in which case they might as well aim for as small a number as possible. If they were to aim for no more than 50,000 critically ill people at any one time, occupying 10% of hospital and care home beds, that would still leave 60 million people who would be vulnerable to the disease in 12 months time. If any country in the west wished to pursue a 'near eradication' policy, there was nothing to stop them trying that a month or so back - close borders and implement rigorous quarantine controls for any people that must enter the country while stamping down hard on any outbreaks. No country has even tried that approach, as far as I can see. Maybe China has a sufficient level of social control over its citizens to manage such a process, but Western governments believe they would be met with riots or worse, if they tried it? Let's see how Italy gets on in the next few days.
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Post by kingedmund on Mar 12, 2020 5:12:20 GMT
What I do know is we started preparing a while ago (February). Me and my neighbors are all pulling together plans in case of any strange circumstances. Everyone in my offices has a laptop to work from home so that’s good. I did, however, just find out my school has extended spring break by one more week. Not quite sure if that won’t be extended again.
Riots. Let’s hope not. I’m not joining in on that.
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Post by Elis on Mar 12, 2020 9:59:11 GMT
I have to admit that I'm getting a little angry about how more and more people suggest we should all just isolate ourselves at home voluntarily. Funny enough, most people I have heard that suggestion from so far, are childless and have a house with a garden. But they think anyone who is not ready to isolate themselves is being irresponsible. What they don't seem to understand is that families with children who live in small flats without a garden or even a balcony need to think of their kids too. Children need fresh air and they need to move, at the very least. I'm sure we will be forced to isolate at home at some point, so why do people not want to understand that, as long as we can, we want Malcolm to have a normal life, with going to his sports group, being in contact with other little children in church on Sundays or seeing a friend with a child, like we did on Tuesday. I'm getting sick of people who get on their high horse and it's always those with a big house, quite a bit of money, a cellar full of food and a nice big garden who tell people like us that we are being egocentric and irresponsible. This thing is already beginning to spplit society and it scares me.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2020 11:28:25 GMT
What is social distancing and why does it matter?Viruses like the novel coronavirus — as well the common cold and the seasonal flu — are spread easily through close contact with other people. When people sneeze or cough, the virus can be transmitted through droplets in the air. It can also be shared on surfaces when someone who is sick coughs or sneezes into their hand then touches something like a door handle or elevator button. Someone else touches that surface then touches their own eyes, mouth or nose and the virus spreads. . . . The hope is that by limiting contact between people, the outbreak will slow down and the most vulnerable people in the community will be protected. Taking steps like social distancing can make the difference in how quickly a virus spreads... Source articleFor the record, I live in a small apartment with my wife, two sons, and two cats. Since the beginning of February, we've been socially responsible and actively limiting our interactions with neighbors, friends, and family. So far so good, we've neither caught nor passed on the virus.
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Post by Kye on Mar 12, 2020 12:00:01 GMT
Very clear and informative graph!
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Post by ceptimus on Mar 12, 2020 12:06:39 GMT
Yes, the flatter curve in the image nazz linked to is what governments are aiming for. It's important to realize, that, in the absence of a vaccine, the area under the curve is constant - the crisis will only be over once enough of the population (60% to 80% estimated) have survived the virus and can't be reinfected. What governments don't want to do (it appears) is flatten out the curve so much that it will take years before this thing is over: imagine we had to endure schools closed etc for a whole year or more - the "treatment" would then become more damaging than the disease.
Of course, the development of a vaccine would change everything. If scientists believed they could have a vaccine available to administer to everyone by, say, June, then I think we would already have seen stricter control measures to keep the number of people infected as low as possible until then. Regrettably, any vaccine still looks to be at least a year away, so allowing most people to become infected and use their own immune systems to fight the virus seems the only practical option available.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2020 13:01:05 GMT
ceptimusthe crisis will only be over once enough of the population (60% to 80% estimated) have survived the virus and can't be reinfectedUpwards of 40 million infected - that's a lot of people. How many in that group do you expect to die? The virus itself could mutate, then reinfection is possible, isn't it? imagine we had to endure schools closed etc for a whole year or morethat's a little dramatic. In China, schools are reopening, businesses are up and running again, things are getting back to normal. so allowing most people to become infected and use their own immune systems to fight the virus seems the only practical option availableit is, I guess, if saving the economy is more important than saving lives...
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Post by ceptimus on Mar 12, 2020 13:45:29 GMT
I'm not claiming that it's necessarily the best policy, or the one that I would choose - only that it appears to be the policy our governments are choosing. If you think they're doing otherwise then please explain why they didn't implement school closures earlier. Ireland, Denmark, Slovakia, and Kazakhstan have now closed all schools. UK still hasn't. It seems that governments are waiting for a certain target level of infection to be reached before ramping up control measures - and, as you say, countries like China that see the level of infection falling below their target have ramped their control measures down again.
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Post by ceptimus on Mar 12, 2020 13:56:10 GMT
ceptimusthe crisis will only be over once enough of the population (60% to 80% estimated) have survived the virus and can't be reinfectedUpwards of 40 million infected - that's a lot of people. How many in that group do you expect to die? The virus itself could mutate, then reinfection is possible, isn't it? The big unknown at the moment is the death rate - it depends on how many people have had the virus without symptoms (or bad enough symptoms for them to report and get tested for, assuming tests are available). My guess at the moment is 1% so for the UK that's about half a million deaths. I could easily be out by a factor of ten either way. Yes, the virus could always mutate, or a completely new virus could emerge at any time - this is a risk we have always lived with: only a new technology for very rapid vaccine development and distribution can avoid it. So far, we have no such technology.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2020 14:19:38 GMT
I'm not claiming that it's necessarily the best policy, or the one that I would choose - only that it appears to be the policy our governments are choosing. If you think they're doing otherwise then please explain why they didn't implement school closures earlier. Ireland, Denmark, Slovakia, and Kazakhstan have now closed all schools. UK still hasn't. It seems that governments are waiting for a certain target level of infection to be reached before ramping up control measures - and, as you say, countries like China that see the level of infection falling below their target have ramped their control measures down again. I reckon school closures haven't been implemented because it's hard to do in isolation. If the kids are at home,then in many cases,the parents will have to be there too. China didn't just close schools, it really was a total shutdown, just like Italy are doing now. In China, provinces that have logged no new cases for more than a fortnight are setting dates for school/university reopenings. Online schooling is hard work for teachers, students, and parents.
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Post by tangent on Mar 12, 2020 17:43:47 GMT
Closing schools is not effective if the children then spend there time, away from school, in cinemas, buses, libraries, supermarkets, cafes and restaurants. The government has to implement a coordinate policy.
Yes, Ireland, Denmark, Slovakia, and Kazakhstan have closed schools but they are further ahead (their numbers are greater). And other countries have not closed their schools. Rather than trying to raise the number of infections to a certain level before taking action, the government has to balance the risk against the social upheaval.
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Post by whollygoats on Mar 12, 2020 21:51:19 GMT
Response is patchwork in the US. Even here in Oregon. The largest school district in the state, in the state's largest city, right here in Puddle City, is still open. I'm sure that there are shiploads of parents who are thankful as they desperately try to make arrangements for what looks to be headed down the tracks right at us. (I suspect a lot of teachers cannot wait to rid themselves of the pestilential vectors ASAP.) The governor has nixed all crowd-generating public gatherings.
Folks are stocking up for two plus weeks without significant interaction. The neighbors, with my gardener in the lead, have formed a communication link to track everybody and some can help others run errands.
One thing I have going for me is that I live alone. I'm also something of an introvert. Most of my daily interactions are with felines. Dave comes over a couple times a week and the Aging Warlords convene fortnightly. Swimmer is down to fortnightly visits, too. Aside from that, my socialization largely consists of medical personnel and the causal wave to the neighbors or the postman. "Social distancing" comes relatively easily with me.
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Post by Moose on Mar 12, 2020 23:53:39 GMT
Unfortunately we can't afford to bulk buy food even if we wanted to
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Mar 13, 2020 6:56:00 GMT
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Post by Elis on Mar 13, 2020 6:56:00 GMT
It seems like schools are preparing to close here. And I think we shouldn't take Malcolm to sports anymore. We will absolutely go outside with him, we have to, as long as we can. But I don't really want to get on trams through the city through a gym right now. As long as we can take him outside, he should be fine.
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Mar 13, 2020 10:12:17 GMT
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Post by juju on Mar 13, 2020 10:12:17 GMT
I can’t believe we haven’t closed schools and universities yet. It’s currently reading week in the university I work in, where I see students 1:1 for an hour each, in an enclosed area. Many students have gone home to different parts of the country but will be back next week, bringing whatever virus they might be carrying. Great.
Five hour Cobra meeting yesterday (UK government’s emergency talks) and all they come up with was stay home if you have a cough and don’t go a cruise. 🙄😡
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Post by Elis on Mar 13, 2020 10:26:35 GMT
There will be a press conference here in Bremen at noon about whether schools will be closed from Monday on. I'm pretty sure they will be.
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Post by tangent on Mar 13, 2020 12:08:37 GMT
Yesterday, I hunted out our 50-year-old thermometer and took my temperature because I had a headache and a slight sniffle. It was normal but it took over two minutes to register properly. This morning I managed to buy a modern one that you stick in your ear. It comes with disposable caps but it was the last one available in the shop. I also received a parcel this morning containing two litres of hospital-grade hand sanitiser that I had ordered from Amazon two weeks ago. Our vicar had asked me to get some and Amazon seemed the only option. Expensive, though. It seems like schools are preparing to close here. And I think we shouldn't take Malcolm to sports anymore. We will absolutely go outside with him, we have to, as long as we can. But I don't really want to get on trams through the city through a gym right now. As long as we can take him outside, he should be fine. When self-isolating, I have heard we should go outside for exercise, to a nearby park for example, just staying two metres away from everyone else and taking obvious precautions.
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