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Post by Elis on Mar 13, 2020 13:43:15 GMT
Complete self-isolation is still not possible since we need to shop for groceries regularly. Hearing what a lot of other people have to cut down on, it sounds like we have always been isolating to a certain extent. There are people who go to restaurants every week, meet lots of friends, go to bars and their sports "Verein"... I was worried about people telling us we were not allowed to get fresh air and instead some people are still wondering if going to a restaurant isn't still okay at this point.
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Post by kingedmund on Mar 13, 2020 14:14:19 GMT
Actually self isolation is possible. You just have to plan and know how to do it. Prepared already and will be going into that very soon. Used to eat out every day but I stopped this last week.
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Post by whollygoats on Mar 13, 2020 15:33:57 GMT
The Oregon governor closed all schools yesterday. I would reinforce tangent's point that outdoor activities are acceptable, even encouraged; just maintain social distance and minimize hand contact. Word on the street is that soap and water, used correctly, outperforms alcohol-based hand sanitizer. So, if you have a choice, go with soap and water. Helpful timed chant and visualized process.
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Covid-19
Mar 13, 2020 15:46:45 GMT
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Post by Elis on Mar 13, 2020 15:46:45 GMT
Actually self isolation is possible. You just have to plan and know how to do it. Prepared already and will be going into that very soon. Used to eat out every day but I stopped this last week. We can't buy and store enough food here for weeks. So we will need to go to supermarkets every now and then. And we will go outside for walks with our toddler. These things are really important. Malcolm's sports groups have been cancelled, schools and universities are closed, churches are cancelling services, so it's going to be easy to stay home, except for the two things mentioned above.
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Covid-19
Mar 13, 2020 16:34:55 GMT
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Post by Kye on Mar 13, 2020 16:34:55 GMT
Our schools daycares and universities are closed in Quebec for 2 weeks. I feel sorry for the parents!
The Catholics have cancelled masses but we Anglicans are still doing church on sundays, albeit cautiously.
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Post by Sarah W. on Mar 13, 2020 17:32:10 GMT
Wow. I'd heard that Masses were cancelled in Italy, but I didn't know other places were doing that too. A lot of dioceses in the US (maybe most of them, I haven't been following much) including ours have dispensed people from the obligation to attend Sunday Mass. Having them all cancelled would be very sad. I plan on continuing to attend mass, unless I become ill or fear I have been exposed to the virus. What I fear most about this is not getting the virus, since it's unlikely to be very harmful to me, but that I will unknowingly pass it on to others.
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Post by ceptimus on Mar 13, 2020 17:34:10 GMT
2 weeks is just the beginning. There's not much point in closing schools and then reopening them to cause another spike in the pandemic. This is a several-months-long haul, which is why the UK hasn't closed schools yet - reserving that option for nearer the peak of the pandemic.
The problem with closing schools for several months at a time, is that kids will need to play together in groups, and will likely be sent to stay with grandparents and other relatives so that the parents can work. This will likely result in more vulnerable older people being exposed to an even greater risk of infection.
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Post by whollygoats on Mar 13, 2020 18:19:09 GMT
Agreed. Our closings have been couched in terms of a fortnight, but evidences coming out of China are that nearer 30 days is required.
I think they entered the two week timeline with the intent of potentially extending that in a week and five days.
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Covid-19
Mar 13, 2020 20:18:28 GMT
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Post by Elis on Mar 13, 2020 20:18:28 GMT
Here the schools will be closed till the Easter holidays which, altogether, means about 5 weeks of no school. No idea what happens once the holidays are over. I have a cold, so I won't even be going to church.
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Post by whollygoats on Mar 13, 2020 21:10:40 GMT
Again, here in the US, many school districts and colleges and universities were all in the process of preparing for spring break. That process got pushed up.
And, it will be more than one week before students will begin returning. I'm thinking summer term.
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Post by tangent on Mar 14, 2020 0:27:05 GMT
We have three more weeks before the Easter break. The Oregon governor closed all schools yesterday. I understand Betsy DeVos was planning on closing all schools anyway - according to Andy Borowitz
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Mar 14, 2020 3:25:49 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2020 3:25:49 GMT
Remember social isolation isn't the same as quarantine. Although if you mess up on the former, you might get to enjoy the latter
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Post by whollygoats on Mar 14, 2020 3:47:17 GMT
The SNAFU here in the US.
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Mar 14, 2020 9:20:24 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2020 9:20:24 GMT
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Post by JoeP on Mar 14, 2020 10:46:40 GMT
New Zealand is already geographically pretty isolated, so they have the chance to do this and make it work.
Presumably they make their own toilet paper and have learned to live without daily imports for everyday life.
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Mar 14, 2020 11:37:54 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2020 11:37:54 GMT
I see cargo ships are not affected so the should be OK on the loo roll front.
What they're doing shows the advantage of being an island. I wonder if it's too late for other islands to follow their lead...
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Mar 14, 2020 19:47:55 GMT
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Post by juju on Mar 14, 2020 19:47:55 GMT
As far as I can see, the UK government’s overall plan is to develop some sort of herd immunity.
Which in real terms translates into throwing the old and sick (drains on resources) under the bus. 😡
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Post by whollygoats on Mar 14, 2020 20:25:58 GMT
Yes, I'd say that sounds very similar to what the US government leadership seems to have had in mind, as well.
They didn't seem to consider, though, that such a strategy put them square in the headlights of the oncoming pandemic. Target numero uno.
I'd facepalm, but it is not advised at this time.
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Post by ceptimus on Mar 14, 2020 21:52:33 GMT
It seems a reasonable approach, to me, in the absence of a vaccine.
The alternative is a continued lock down for perhaps a whole year until a vaccine becomes available. Do people really want everything to be closed down for a year? That would likely kill more people than the expected 1% ~ 2% that the virus will kill.
A temporary lock down won't work - as China may soon discover. As soon as you let people go back to work, and kids back to school, fresh outbreaks will spring up. Allowing a majority of the population to become infected with the virus and so build immunity is the only way we can hope to return to normal.
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Covid-19
Mar 14, 2020 22:26:09 GMT
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Post by Elis on Mar 14, 2020 22:26:09 GMT
From what I have heard, that is the idea, but they want it to happen slowly enough to be able to treat critical cases without being completely overwhelmed by sick people nobody can take care of anymore. Not sure about the sick and elderly, though. My parents have planned a holiday with us in August and I know my mother wouldn't want to miss it. And considering the fact that she might not have that much time left anyway, I think she'll be willing to take a risk and see her grandson again.
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Post by Kye on Mar 14, 2020 22:26:37 GMT
As long as everyone doesn't get sick at the same time and recovering from it actually gives the person immunity... Here in my province of Quebec, the Premier is telling everyone over 70 years old to stay home. (There goes my congregation... )
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Post by ceptimus on Mar 14, 2020 22:41:35 GMT
If you run the numbers though, the health services still won't be able to cope with the 'flattened peak'.
The government wants 60% to 80% of the population infected over the next 8 months or so. Let's be generous and assume they manage to keep a completely steady rate of infection over that time.
So in the UK, that's about 42 million people to be infected. If 5% of those are severe enough to need treatment that's just over two million people. Assume they need treating for 2 weeks each, and spread that out evenly over the 8-month period - then about 131 thousand hospital beds will be occupied at any one time.
Now, of course, there's no chance of flattening out the peak completely, so at the peak there will likely be a quarter of million people, or more, needing treatment. There simply aren't that many beds available.
Temporary treatment centres can be set up in sports halls, or tents - but there won't be enough ventilators or medical staff to go around - remember that a portion of the medical staff will also be off sick.
So you're into triage measures - treating those most likely to recover. Old people and others with pre-existing medical conditions that make their recovery less likely will be left to die.
It's harsh, isn't it? But these are reasonable estimates. Remember that 1% to 2% are expected to die, so only 5% requiring treatment is, if anything, probably an under-estimate.
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Post by tangent on Mar 15, 2020 0:37:32 GMT
I originally came up with similar numbers, Ceptimus, but I'm not sure it shows the correct picture. First of all, the UK government is hoping the number of infections will peak not in eight months time but in about 10 to 14 weeks, that is some time in May. The British government will not allow the NHS to be swamped (there would be an outcry if it did) and that suggests fewer than 42% will by have caught the disease by then and recovered. Maybe only 15% of the population. That will give some herd immunity, which will slow down the disease a little but not enough to eradicate the disease. You say that China will see flare ups when the controls are relaxed. New cases in the Hubei province hovered around the 400 mark during the last two weeks in February and are now down to 10 per day or less (the population of Hubei is about the same size as England and Wales). The rest of China does not have the same strict controls as the Hubei province and yet there have been no flare ups since the disease was brought under control six weeks ago. This gives me confidence that if the disease does peak some time in May, the government will be able to keep it under control for the rest of the year without the strict controls we have seen in China. So you're into triage measures - treating those most likely to recover. Old people and others with pre-existing medical conditions that make their recovery less likely will be left to die. That is what a lot of people fear but it's too early to say and the government can introduce controls that will prevent that from happening. Again, I believe there would be an outcry if the government did let that happen. I think it's unnecessarily pessimistic.
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Post by ceptimus on Mar 15, 2020 0:57:46 GMT
I didn't say the peak would be in eight months, I said they want to get 60% to 80% of the population infected DURING the next eight months - they said they want to do it before next winter. So I worked out the likely person-weeks of hospital bed time required, and spread that evenly across the eight month period.
Conclusion is insufficient ventilators and insufficient medical staff. The government is now asking Rolls Royce, JCB, and other companies to drop normal production and have a war-effort style push to manufacture thousands of new ventilators. They will also aim to train temporary medical staff: of course they can't fully train them in the available time, but will train only the likely most commonly needed procedures - intubation, and the operation of the ventilators.
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Post by tangent on Mar 15, 2020 1:17:57 GMT
I didn't say the peak would be in eight months, I said they want to get 60% to 80% of the population infected DURING the next eight months - they said they want to do it before next winter. So I worked out the likely person-weeks of hospital bed time required, and spread that evenly across the eight month period. I know you didn't say the peak would be in eight months but I'm saying that (a) the government is aiming to peak in 10 to 14 weeks time and (b) the numbers you quote don't appear to tally with that. When the infection rate peaks, if the government gets it right, we will see a swift reduction in cases. So, I'm saying the main period of high rates of infection will be limited to the next 10 to 14 weeks. There is another factor that I have just found and that is the attack rate, which I think represents the susceptibility of people to catching the disease. The attack rate for ordinary flu for unvaccinated individuals is 8.8% for adults under 64, and 3.9% for adults 65 years and older. I've seen an estimated attack rate of 30% to 40% for covid-19. I think this means only 30% to 40% of the population will be susceptible to covid-19 and this will considerably shorten the amount of time before the peak is reached and herd immunity kicks in. Conclusion is insufficient ventilators and insufficient medical staff. The government is now asking Rolls Royce, JCB, and other companies to drop normal production and have a war-effort style push to manufacture thousands of new ventilators. They will also aim to train temporary medical staff: of course they can't fully train them in the available time, but will train only the likely most commonly needed procedures - intubation, and the operation of the ventilators. I don't agree with your conclusion (for reasons I have given above). Just because the government is asking companies to drop normal production and have a war-effort style push to manufacture thousands of new ventilators doesn't necessarily mean there will in the end be insufficient ventillators.
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Post by spaceflower on Mar 15, 2020 1:18:27 GMT
China has criticized Sweden for "giving up" the fight against covid-19 and urges EU to condemn Sweden's irresonsible acting. This in a leader in the Chinese edition of Global Times. But in the English edition they only write the facts: www.globaltimes.cn/content/1182550.shtmlThere are now over 600 infected and 2 have died. I wonder if I will survive. If 80% of the people will get infected, how can I avoid it? And the ventilators will not be enough for all...
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Mar 15, 2020 11:23:23 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 11:23:23 GMT
You say that China will see flare ups when the controls are relaxed. New cases in the Hubei province hovered around the 400 mark during the last two weeks in February and are now down to 10 per day or less (the population of Hubei is about the same size as England and Wales). The rest of China does not have the same strict controls as the Hubei province and yet there have been no flare ups since the disease was brought under control six weeks ago. This gives me confidence that if the disease does peak some time in May, the government will be able to keep it under control for the rest of the year without the strict controls we have seen in China. That's not quite true. Other provinces in China went into lockdown as well. It was a country-wide policy. Movement was severely restricted and in some provinces one person household was only able to go out to buy groceries every three days. Social isolation has been very effective in reducing the spread of the virus, and consequently the number of new infections.
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Mar 15, 2020 11:38:10 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 11:38:10 GMT
It seems a reasonable approach, to me, in the absence of a vaccine. The alternative is a continued lock down for perhaps a whole year until a vaccine becomes available. Do people really want everything to be closed down for a year? That would likely kill more people than the expected 1% ~ 2% that the virus will kill. A temporary lock down won't work - as China may soon discover. As soon as you let people go back to work, and kids back to school, fresh outbreaks will spring up. Allowing a majority of the population to become infected with the virus and so build immunity is the only way we can hope to return to normal. What makes you think that? Restrictions have been relaxed a little and more businesses are up and running. But it's not a free for all. It's a controlled return to work. People are still cautious without panicking. Schools won't go back until there's been an extended period without any new cases - on a province by province basis. The biggest risk for China now is the reintroduction of the virus from those returning from Europe or the US. If allowing a majority of the population to become infected with the virus and so build immunity is the only way we can hope to return to normal, why did I have to suffer numerous vaccinations in my school years and many people choose to have flu vacs every year? Should just let everybody get sick and, to quote juju, throw the weak ones under the bus...
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Post by ceptimus on Mar 15, 2020 12:12:27 GMT
It's a judgement call. It seems that preventing rapid growth of the pandemic requires continuing severe lock down measures. So you have to decide whether that's a price worth paying: do you lock down the country until a vaccine is ready, or do you allow people to become infected in a somewhat-controlled way over a period of a few months?
Some countries seem to be going the severe lock down route - which will involve closing schools, and many places of work, for months on end - other countries seem to have decided to go for the immunity-via-infection route.
Time will tell which approach was best. By around October, countries that have gone the controlled infection route will be slowly beginning the return to normal: countries pursuing the lock-down route will still have many months of lock down ahead of them - assuming that a vaccine can't be developed more rapidly than everyone expects.
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Mar 15, 2020 12:21:35 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 12:21:35 GMT
Some countries seem to be going the severe lock down route - which will involve closing schools, and many places of work for months on end - other countries seem to have decided to go for the immunity-via-infection route. Which countries have been in lockdown for months on end?
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