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Post by tangent on May 13, 2020 12:46:45 GMT
I did some research into the R number (variously spelt, R0, R 0) and tried to calculate the R number for the UK and various US states. The R number is the reproduction rate and can be calculated as follows: (number of new cases today) - (number of cases five days ago) / (number of extant cases five days ago) Extant cases are those people who can infect others. The main problem with this calculation is that most countries (and most American states) don't specify the number of extant cases in their statistics. How do you know a person is extant (not recovered and not dead) and still able to infect others? If they have been discharged from hospital, they might still be infectious. If they have been tested and told to quarantine themselves for two weeks, can one assume they will not longer be infectious at the end of quarantine?. It's obviously difficult to keep track. In the case of Minnesota: Number of cases on 12 May = 12494 (see link) Number of cases on 7 May = 9365 Number recovered on 7 May = 5308 (see link) Number of people dead on 7 May = 508 Therefore R 0 = (12494 - 9365) / (9365 - 5308 - 508) = 0.88 The UK government says the R 0 number is an all important factor in the decision to lift lockdown. If R 0 is greater than 1, the number of cases continues to multiply. And if R 0 is slightly less than one, it would still be dangerous to lift the lockdown. But astonishingly, many American states appear not to be measuring R 0, which means they are intending to lift lockdown purely for political reasons.
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Post by kingedmund on May 16, 2020 23:05:41 GMT
Lockdown across America is pretty much ending. This is the first I’ve heard about an R number.
Had one lady ask Anna why she even bothers to were a mask. Your chances are 98% good. I’m not sure where she got he number or what it was about, but if that’s you way of say the other 2% don’t matter.. don’t come to our store.
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Post by Moose on May 17, 2020 16:56:46 GMT
I have no idea at all what the lockdown status is here any more
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Post by JoeP on May 17, 2020 17:39:40 GMT
The status is clear: "stay alert"
What that means, I'll grant, is totally unclear
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Post by tangent on May 17, 2020 19:16:00 GMT
Lockdown across America is pretty much ending. This is the first I’ve heard about an R number. The UK government mentions it in their broadcasts whilst the BBC mentions it in pretty much all of their news bulletins.
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Post by Shake on May 18, 2020 2:04:06 GMT
Lockdown across America is pretty much ending. This is the first I’ve heard about an R number. Had one lady ask Anna why she even bothers to were a mask. Your chances are 98% good. I’m not sure where she got he number or what it was about, but if that’s you way of say the other 2% don’t matter.. don’t come to our store. My governor, Andrew Cuomo, has regularly mentioned the R number in his daily briefings. Not every day, but he's brought it up enough so that many people should know about it. IIRC, he said given margins of error, once we got into the 0.8-1.2 range, things would definitely be looking better. Obviously, below 1.0 is the goal and means containment is working. I've not seen any numbers in a few days, but last I saw, the encouraging news, especially for me as a New Yorker, is that NY state percentage of all US cases had dropped from roughly 1/3 to almost exactly 25%. Indeed, other graphs confirmed this news, showing the overall decline in total US confirmed cases following a drop in cases in this state (even though some other states were still increasing). For those here in the States, I know MSNBC was carrying his daily briefings and I think CNN was too. Not sure about any other major news outlets. Again, being in NY, we took to watching the address on our local stations so we wouldn't miss anything when the big networks dropped away: usually when he started taking questions specific to things in NYS. The wiki article on R number is good at informing what it's all about, for those who may not know.
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Post by whollygoats on May 18, 2020 14:39:05 GMT
R naught!
It was my understanding that the R0 number needed to be based upon relatively accurate estimates of the total number of infected individuals. In the US, there are NO SUCH NUMBERS. There has been a calculated and ongoing effort to suppress the number of infected, hospitalized, and mortalities associated with Covid-19. This is because the dipshit in the White House does not want the numbers to accurately show how shitty a job they have done. You cannot adequately assess the gravity of the situation and design an appropriate response if a controller is suppressing useful information.
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Post by tangent on May 18, 2020 17:55:01 GMT
R naught! It was my understanding that the R0 number needed to be based upon relatively accurate estimates of the total number of infected individuals. In the US, there are NO SUCH NUMBERS. There has been a calculated and ongoing effort to suppress the number of infected, hospitalized, and mortalities associated with Covid-19. This is because the dipshit in the White House does not want the numbers to accurately show how shitty a job they have done. You cannot adequately assess the gravity of the situation and design an appropriate response if a controller is suppressing useful information. It's true, very few states publish details of how many people have recovered from the virus, possibly because it's very difficult to tell. But I really don't think Donald Trump has such a hold on state governors that he can effectively quash any desire for accurate reporting. Yes, in red states but not in blue ones. Minnesota does publish estimates of patients who have recovered from which one can do a back-of-the-envelope calculation. More likely, states are keeping quiet about the numbers because they can be interpreted wrongly. The UK doesn't publish statistics of recovered patients but it is intensely concerned about the R number.
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Post by kingedmund on May 19, 2020 3:26:44 GMT
So another-words I stay home and no eating out. 😂.
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Post by whollygoats on May 19, 2020 6:03:19 GMT
Statistics on who has recovered are the least of our worries.
I am more concerned about their desire to suppress analysis of how many Americans have died of Covid-19 entirely undiagnosed. In the US, Covid-19 is vastly undercounted because there has been chronic undertesting and unwillingness to expand testing for fear of exposing the true extent of the pandemic.
I think 'the Heartland' is about to experience a terrible vengeance wrought by Nature upon those who would flaunt hubris in the face of lethal chance.
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Post by kingedmund on May 30, 2020 19:17:36 GMT
Time will tell.
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