Yuki
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Post by Yuki on Jan 26, 2015 18:13:54 GMT
I suppose you know about it, but if you don't, it's a Dutch non-profit that aims to put the first humans on Mars, who would go there in a one way mission to live on the planet for the rest of their lives. About a year ago, the founder Bas Lansdorp did an AMA (Ask Me Anything) session on Reddit, and most of the comments by Redditers were pretty negative. Many said it was just a scam, and others said that even if it wasn't a scam, it was quite poorly planned, and unfeasible. You can read more here and here.
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Post by juju on Jan 26, 2015 18:20:31 GMT
I don't think it sounds like a scam, but it does sound like a shambles. You'd be mad to invest or volunteer - it looks really poorly thought through, and to offer it as a reality TV opportunity is ridiculous.
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Yuki
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Post by Yuki on Jan 26, 2015 21:17:18 GMT
Yes, Bas Lansdorp is not being realistic. Though I think the initiative has a chance of succeeding, it would need a lot more money than has been raised so far, and a plan with more technical details, and certainly more time. By "succeeding" I mean that they would put humans on Mars and leave them there. What would happen to them is an entirely different matter.
I have a feeling that the people working at Mars One are secretly hoping that once they put humans on the planet, everyone who's been planning the same thing including NASA, Elon Musk, and others, would join their project and help manage it and finance it from that point on. So even if the reality TV thing doesn't succeed, they wouldn't need it anymore.
Maybe that's what would happen, but it all hinges on getting humans to the planet first, and they don't seem to be doing very well so far.
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Post by raspberrybullets on Jan 27, 2015 9:39:51 GMT
I reckon there is a good chance if the effort was put in, to get humans to Mars. I don't think it would happen anytime soon though. Whether they could function at all is another thing. 6 months in space already stuffs people up - if they could manage the long journey which is the first part of the whole thing, they would then also need to somehow cope with gravity on Mars by themselves since there are no humans there to look after them. But anyway I think with research and money, they could make it.
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Post by raspberrybullets on Jan 27, 2015 9:57:25 GMT
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Yuki
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Posts: 632
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Post by Yuki on Jan 27, 2015 10:11:18 GMT
NASA is planning that for the 2030s. Elon Musk hasn't detailed his plans yet, but his company SpaceX was founded precisely for the aim of creating a spacecraft that would get people to Mars (for now they're ferrying supplies to the ISS and soon they'll start sending astronauts too). If someone with a respectable record like Musk, who directed and founded several successful companies, was behind Mars One, I think most people would trust the initiative immediately, even if it was sketchy on details (something Musk wouldn't do anyway, he always comes with a detailed report of what he intends to do, as he did with the Hyperloop).
But Bas Lansdorp came out of nowhere, and is trying to do the same. Maybe he's more capable than we think, but his plan totally hinges on having sufficient funds to get the supplies needed to send people to Mars and to solve technical difficulties, which requires a certain level of trustworthiness. He should have at least made a name for himself in something else, and then used his reputation to boost this project. That's of course assuming his plans are realistic in the first place.
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Post by Alvamiga on Jan 27, 2015 21:08:48 GMT
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Post by Moose on Jan 28, 2015 22:45:21 GMT
I presume that we could get humans to Mars, if we had enough money - if we can get probes there there's no realistic reason why not humans. But what do they do when they get there?
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Post by ProdigalAlan on Jan 28, 2015 22:48:46 GMT
Well . . . . . they could always nominate themselves for a Darwin award
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Yuki
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Post by Yuki on Jan 29, 2015 3:55:57 GMT
But what do they do when they get there? I think the only reasons humans should go to Mars are as pioneers to set a record, or for a permanent settlement. Elon Musk revealed his plan to create a human colony of 80.000 people on Mars, but this is still relatively far in the future, and he's barely at his first steps of creating affordable technology that would get us there (reliable capsules, reusable rockets, efficient green energy..)
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Post by juju on Jan 29, 2015 9:27:11 GMT
But as I understand it, right now there's not the technology for anyone to survive more than a couple of months there. It would be a suicide mission.
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Yuki
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Post by Yuki on Jan 29, 2015 10:22:12 GMT
Yes, whoever wants to live on Mars will need the technology to generate food and water and heat locally for example (otherwise the mission would be too expensive and too risky). But even in Mars One's plan they're not sending anyone until 2024, that's about 9-10 years from now. I don't think space exploration should be done with the spirit of "let's wait until all the technology needed is available and then send people to Mars", rather "let's send people to Mars, now what are the technical difficulties that we need to solve to get there?". The later way of thinking was the very reason why many of our problems on Earth were solved indirectly by space research.
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Post by Alvamiga on Jan 29, 2015 14:58:26 GMT
In the video I posted, Robert Zubrin says "It shouldn't be humans to Mars in fifty years. It should be humans to Mars in ten." I think he said that a few years back at least, so he needs to get a move on!
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Post by tangent on Jan 29, 2015 22:29:56 GMT
It's an interesting idea but it won't succeed. At the moment, it is only a fledgling idea and it needs a lot more meat but even if it is technically feasible, it won't have the necessary backing. No one will back a suicide mission. Their funding, based on reality TV, is entirely insufficient and no one has the funds to keep them alive until they die naturally. Until some government or corporation backs them to keep them alive, their rocket won't leave the launch pad.
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Post by ProdigalAlan on Jan 30, 2015 0:10:13 GMT
Agreed
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Post by Moose on Jan 30, 2015 1:54:14 GMT
And who would want to go anyway? For what purpose?!
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Post by juju on Jan 30, 2015 8:27:50 GMT
Fame, I spose. I would bet money they'd get some volunteers, even for a suicide mission - people are strange.
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Yuki
Senior members
Posts: 632
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Post by Yuki on Jan 30, 2015 10:33:32 GMT
Fame, I spose. I would bet money they'd get some volunteers, even for a suicide mission - people are strange. They already did! 200.000 people volunteered according to this article (other sources say that was an exaggerated figure, and the true number of volunteers was 80.000, check the links in the OP for more details).
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Post by juju on Jan 30, 2015 10:50:05 GMT
Fame, I spose. I would bet money they'd get some volunteers, even for a suicide mission - people are strange. They already did! 200.000 people volunteered according to this article (other sources say that was an exaggerated figure, and the true number of volunteers was 80.000, check the links in the OP for more details). But did they know it was a suicide mission at that point? It's one thing volunteering to spend the rest of your life on Mars (which is bad enough, especially if you're married with a family like that one guy) but did they realise how little time they'd probably have left to live if they did get there?
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Post by tangent on Jan 30, 2015 15:21:35 GMT
If I remember correctly, the scheme assumes supplies will arrive regularly every two years, which in turn assumes the company won't ever go bankrupt. That presents the Netherlands with a dilemma because the Netherlands would be the government that permits bankruptcy and thereby the deaths of all the astronauts. Imagine the furore around the world and the condemnation of the Netherlands. I'm pretty sure the Netherlands will have thought of that and won't sanction lift off until the company has enough funds to set up a trust fund that will prevent future bankruptcy. That means the company would be funded on the trust fund's interest and not on its capital.
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Post by Shake on Mar 7, 2015 5:25:25 GMT
An ex-girlfriend of mine is in the running to go. I couldn't do it, but I'm glad there are people willing to go.
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Post by tangent on Mar 7, 2015 11:18:24 GMT
There are plenty of politicans who have been nominated
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