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Post by Moose on Jul 5, 2022 22:33:22 GMT
Following the departure of two key members of the government, is this FINALLY it for Johnson?
2/3 says he's gone by this time next week. But who then?
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Post by tangent on Jul 5, 2022 22:38:47 GMT
An awful lot of people are still propping him up. But when he does go, most of the country will cheer.
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Post by Moose on Jul 5, 2022 22:54:13 GMT
There may well be more resignations though. There's only so much he can take.
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Post by JoeP on Jul 6, 2022 8:18:56 GMT
Yes, he'll definitely only last a few more years.
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Post by tangent on Jul 6, 2022 11:09:39 GMT
There have been 16 resignations so far with another six people thinking about it*. Is this a record (for the number of government resignations in 24 hours)?
* 43 resignations if you include parliamentary private secretaries and others.
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Post by tangent on Jul 6, 2022 17:57:56 GMT
From Andy Borowitz, satirist, of the New York Times:  Boris Johnson Freaks Out After Giuliani Arrives in London to Help Him |
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Post by Moose on Jul 6, 2022 22:40:49 GMT
And Gove has been sacked.
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Post by tangent on Jul 7, 2022 11:52:31 GMT
Boris has resigned as Tory leader but stays on as PM until a new leader is elected in the Autumn.
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Post by JoeP on Jul 7, 2022 14:05:55 GMT
* Hopes to stay on
Lots of Tory MPs don't agree with that plan
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Post by tangent on Jul 7, 2022 20:49:14 GMT
Agreed.
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Post by whollygoats on Jul 7, 2022 21:13:56 GMT
Is there anyone left of the Tories who has 'leadership' as part of their skill set? I thought bumping Boorish up to PM was a pretty desperate act, myself, scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Heh...I just saw the 'Larry has crapped. It was in Boorish's shoe.' meme.
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Post by Moose on Jul 7, 2022 23:07:42 GMT
I have no idea who we might get now. They might be worse.
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Post by tangent on Jul 8, 2022 7:33:00 GMT
oddschecker gives a list of whom the general public think will be the next prime minister. Ben Wallace, Defence Secretary, is the favourite possibly because of his visible involvement with the war in Ukraine. Then come Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat and Andrea Jenkyns, most of whom I've never heard of. The ones we have heard of come well down the list possibly because they are villains we don't want, such as Liz Truss and Jeremy Hunt. I suspect the betting odds bear no relationship with the actual likely candidates. Piers Morgan is at 250 to 1. This BBC article gives a more realistic list: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60037657
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Post by tangent on Jul 11, 2022 16:38:40 GMT
From the BBC website:  Please don't change. |
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Post by tangent on Jul 12, 2022 20:07:24 GMT
Looking at the betting odds, it would appear the race will be between Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss. The other candidates have long odds.
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Post by Moose on Jul 12, 2022 23:47:46 GMT
I don't know anything about the middle one .. thoughts?
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Post by tangent on Jul 13, 2022 7:01:06 GMT
Penny Mordaunt is said to be quite bright but an unknown quantity. On the political spectrum, I would place her somewhere between Rishi Sunak (moderate) and Liz Truss (hard right). She is a navy reservist and has served as Defence Secretary, amongst other positions.
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Post by Moose on Jul 13, 2022 23:22:56 GMT
The Daily Mail does not like her  |
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Post by tangent on Jul 13, 2022 23:26:04 GMT
Something in her favour then.
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Post by Moose on Jul 14, 2022 1:46:25 GMT
Yeah that's what I figured. But - she's pro Brexit.
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Post by whollygoats on Jul 14, 2022 1:50:04 GMT
But that's not why the Daily Mail dislikes her, is it?
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Post by tangent on Jul 14, 2022 11:46:05 GMT
But that's not why the Daily Mail dislikes her, is it? No, the Daily Mail is gunning for Liz Truss who is a far right candidate, whilst Penny Mordaunt is seen as her main rival. Rival papers are calling it a 'whispering campaign' whilst an ally of Mordaunt was calling it a 'dog-whistle anti-woke Faragist campaign'. It is fairly clear now that the final three will be Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss. Up until recently, Rishi Sunak was the clear favourite, which meant that Penny and Liz would battle it out to be in the final two, and hence subject to Conservative members' whims. But in the past 24 hours, Mordaunt has gained momentum and oddschecker now makes her the clear favourite. I'm fairly sure there will be tactical voting in the next few days.  MPs votes in second round |
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Post by Moose on Jul 14, 2022 22:27:35 GMT
The Mail are really going crazy today - there's like half a dozen anti Penny articles  |
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Post by tangent on Jul 15, 2022 6:48:31 GMT
Fortunately, Conservative MPs don't tend to base their decisions solely on Daily Mail articles and so she is highly likely to reach the final two.
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Post by Moose on Jul 15, 2022 23:29:00 GMT
MPs might not but rank and file members often do.
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Post by tangent on Jul 16, 2022 6:32:02 GMT
Yes but the top two are decided by MPs and not the rank and file.
The top two will almost certainly be:
Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt
Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss
Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt
The betting odds suggest Rishi Sunak will be in the top two and so it will either be Liz Truss or Penny Mordaunt accompanying him in the final. Mordaunt just has to beat Truss into the top two, which she can do without the prejudices of the rank and file.
Both Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt are centrist candidates. And of course, prominent right-wing Conservatives are gunning for Liz Truss because otherwise they won't have a far-right candidate in the final.
After yesterday's TV debate, the betting odds for Liz Truss have dropped from 5:1 to 13:1.
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Post by whollygoats on Jul 16, 2022 16:04:21 GMT
Heh...Thank you, tangent.
I like your use of 'betting odds' rather than 'poll results'. They strike me a far more honest and accurate.
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Post by ceptimus on Jul 18, 2022 1:27:30 GMT
Liz Truss was (in her youth) a Liberal Democrat, and she supported Remain during Brexit.
Only after the Remain side lost did she switch to being an enthusiastic (apparently) Brexit supporter.
She's generally reckoned to be fairly stupid (see her notorious 'disgraceful cheese' video on YouTube which I've linked to in the post below). However, she's promised unfunded tax cuts from the magic money tree if she becomes leader, which is why the Daily Mail and Daily Express newspapers, and some hard right Tory MPs are supporting her.
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Post by ceptimus on Jul 18, 2022 1:29:53 GMT
I enjoy visiting the fragrant tea plantations situated throughout Yorkshire, where hard-working Brits pick and grade the delicious tea that we then export to China.
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Post by whollygoats on Jul 18, 2022 2:38:56 GMT
Grew up a Liberal Democrat, yet is now standing for Conservative PM?
What kind of trauma causes that? Does anybody know?
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