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Post by tangent on May 22, 2024 15:54:09 GMT
Hurrah 🙂
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Post by JoeP on May 22, 2024 21:06:44 GMT
Yes we are all so excited
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Post by tangent on May 22, 2024 21:56:11 GMT
Independent candidates should do well  |
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Post by JoeP on May 23, 2024 6:35:54 GMT
Independent candidates should do well Are you going to stand? |
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Post by tangent on May 23, 2024 6:59:43 GMT
No, I'm too dependent on my wife for lots of things.
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Post by Mari on May 23, 2024 16:24:52 GMT
So is she going to then?
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Post by tangent on May 23, 2024 17:11:27 GMT
Stand as an independent? No, after her knee operation, she can't stand for very long.
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Post by Mari on May 24, 2024 18:26:16 GMT
Shame. (Good comedic comeback by the way  ) |
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Post by Moose on May 25, 2024 2:37:54 GMT
I think that Labour will romp it in but I do want to see our local constituency taken back for Labour too (it always was and then they did some gerrymandering and put some posh areas into it so the Tories got in).
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Post by tangent on May 25, 2024 8:19:52 GMT
I agree, Labour will win. I've added the votes in the two old constituencies, adjusted for Reform and current voting intentions according to the polls. This is my prediction for your constituency:  |
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Post by Moose on May 26, 2024 3:35:20 GMT
MY constituency? We have a Tory incumbent.
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Post by tangent on May 26, 2024 13:38:04 GMT
Not for very long.
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Post by Moose on May 26, 2024 22:33:51 GMT
Unfortunately, that might not be true.
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Post by tangent on May 27, 2024 8:11:19 GMT
Unfortunately, that might not be true. Why do you say that? The Tories only had an 12% lead in the two old constituencies. Their popularity has plummeted whilst Labour's has increased so a win for Labour is almost certain. Reform might even beat them into second place. This chart shows how voting intensions have changed since the last general election. In the last election, the Conservatives gained 44.7% of the seats whilst Labour gained only 32.9%. Voting intentions show a massive drop for the Conservatives to 24% and a large rise for Labour to 43.9%  Trend lines, 2019 general election to today |
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Post by Moose on May 28, 2024 23:48:37 GMT
They changed the boundaries a few years ago to include some posh areas ... that's when it became Tory.
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Post by tangent on May 29, 2024 0:59:03 GMT
They changed the boundaries a few years ago to include some posh areas ... that's when it became Tory. It looks as though that was in 2017. It changed a 7000 majority for Labour to a 10000 majority for the Conservatives, or thereabouts. The difference is small and it would require a much larger majority to affect the end result. In any case, I've taken that into account. ETA: Correction to the size of the Conservative majority. |
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Post by Moose on May 31, 2024 3:48:59 GMT
7000 is a BIG majority somewhere like this.
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Post by tangent on May 31, 2024 7:33:20 GMT
My prediction is that a 10,000 majority for the Conservatives will be overturned and will give a 21,000 majority for Labour. The polls suggest that majorities of 20,000 or more are going to be overturned all over the country unless Labour commits a major gaff that affects their perception. The treatment of Diane Abbott is not helping.
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Post by tangent on Jun 5, 2024 20:26:24 GMT
Interestingly, YouGov has today brought out an MRP projection which, for my own constituency, Hazel Grove, and for Whitehaven & Workington, has very similar predictions to my owns. Moreover, YouGov is famed for their accurate predictions.
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Post by JoeP on Jun 5, 2024 20:36:47 GMT
I assume they copied you.
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Post by tangent on Jun 5, 2024 22:36:49 GMT
If so, they didn't get the numbers quite right.
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Post by Moose on Jun 8, 2024 3:22:38 GMT
Have I got News For You suggested that this might be the biggest Labour majority since the twenties.
Although I don't like to be complacent about election results - I did not expect Trump to get in or Brexit to get through - I am fairly confident that the Tories are on the way out.
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Post by tangent on Jun 8, 2024 14:16:27 GMT
A Labour gaff could change the election significantly but instead, Sunak made a significant gaff yesterday by not staying for the most important D Day commemoration event. Just as we thought the government couldn't do anything worse.
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Post by Moose on Jun 8, 2024 23:02:06 GMT
Yeah that was a serious faux pas. They're gonna be wiped out.
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Post by tangent on Jun 9, 2024 8:56:23 GMT
They say every cloud (not staying for the D-Day ceremony) has a silver lining (Tories being wiped out).
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Post by Sarah W. on Jun 10, 2024 14:11:55 GMT
A Labour gaff could change the election significantly but instead, Sunak made a significant gaff yesterday by not staying for the most important D Day commemoration event. Just as we thought the government couldn't do anything worse. My husband and I watched some morning coverage of the D-Day commemoration on our news here and wondered why the UK was so notably absent when Biden and the French president were there. I hadn't dug into why that was or given it much thought after that. |
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Post by tangent on Jun 10, 2024 16:10:53 GMT
My husband and I watched some morning coverage of the D-Day commemoration on our news here and wondered why the UK was so notably absent when Biden and the French president were there. I hadn't dug into why that was or given it much thought after that. He'd arranged to do an interview with ITV several weeks ago and didn't think the last day of the D Day commemorations were important enough to cancel it. |
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Post by Moose on Jun 11, 2024 1:24:31 GMT
Hi Sarah  . At this point I suspect that there's nothing that is going to help the Tories anyway but this might have taken a lot of votes from older people. |
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