WWIII?

There are lots of different opinions, but they mostly centre around Putin going steadily more crazy, or the "siloviki" (political strongmen) who surround him going more insane. Probably both.

It's not just Crimea, it's the whole of Ukraine: if it were to become properly democratic it would be a real threat to Putin's claim that the west is dying and only firm central rule can survive. And it would increase the threat of there being resistance movements in Russia.

The other thing of course is they're all paranoid about Nato - if Ukraine were to join Nato, they would see as pretty much the same thing as invading Moscow itself. The irony is that their current behaviour makes it more likely that Sweden and Finland will apply to join Nato.

I... didn't expect to wake up to a full-blown war. I'm so ff ing angry with that toddler and his cronies who bloody have access to nukes for just starting a war with an innocent country because he can and it won't hurt him one bit.
How can you not care about taking innocent lives, destroying homes, traumatizing people for decades?
I'm so angry and frustrated I'm crying.

It seems to have all kicked off. I have no idea what the implications are for the next few weeks or months. I do not know either whether the UK will get involved or whether it is a good or bad thing if we do. What do people think?

Oh, and the news will be absolutely full of it and that will have a negative impact on our mental health.

That's really interesting, Steve. I hadn't heard that about the language side of things. Thanks for sharing that.

A lot of old news gets forgotten but I dare say Putin would have looked weak if he had included the language problem in his list of demands.

Of course, we've had our own language protests in the UK. In the 1960s and 70s there was a move to see Welsh formally recognised as an official language (which it now is).

I can't see other countries doing much to stop China. As with Russia, they'll complain loudly and impose economic sanctions, maybe withdraw ambassadors. But such measures also hurt the countries that impose them, especially if China imposes countermeasures of its own. Such measures are always quietly relaxed and withdrawn anyway, once the news cycle moves on to the next big thing.

Maybe Liz Truss will dress up in costume again, and visit China and Taiwan. She might do something more serious than she did with Russia: perhaps she could hold a Jumble Sale in Taiwan's benefit, or maybe even write a stiff letter to President Xi.

China has its own internal problems, primarily with corruption in the PLA. Their attempt at control is more economic than military. The 'Belt and Road' policies are building a network of economic connections across Eurasia and into Africa. Their economic hitmen are out there leveraging 'foreign aid' into asset control. But, still...

Putin's timing seems at odds with reality, but perhaps I've lost track of infrastructure improvements in Ukraine. Is raputitsa still a thing? Do the roads still turn to quagmires in spring and fall? If so, I'd think it bad timing to move a bunch of heavy equipment into Ukraine when they'll potentially end up mired in muck. And, I dunno if it is propaganda or not, but Russian regiments have been noted to have surrendered to Ukraine troops and claiming they weren't told they'd have to kill Ukrainians. I've seen footage of massive gatherings in Russian cities where Russians are protesting the invasion.

Sanctions have tightened and focused particularly upon the holdings and transactions of the Russian oligarchy, Putin's complicit co-conspirators. I understand that resupply of Ukraine is being done overland, through Poland and Romania. US troops are being airlifted to eastern Europe (Latvia, I think) to beef up US military presence in the immediate region.

It is an unprovoked act of naked aggression on the part of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. The response is relatively restrained, so far.

Reddit is showing Russian hardware already mired in Ukraine muck. The narrator states that the equipment has been abandoned by their crews.

rasputitsa

At the end of day one, western sources were stating that Russia had air superiority over Ukraine. By day two, that had been rescinded.

Nah, I'd say it's just bad planning on Vlad's part.

Indeed, just as I was seeing evidences of rasputitsa (there's a great bit of video on Reddit showing a boom bucket shovel engaged in digging out ten to twelve large tanks stuck in mud, but it was dated February 10 and indicated as being near Rostov, in Russia, not far from the Ukraine border), it became clear that the Rooskies KNEW of the conditions at this time of year and yet went right ahead. The comments I'm seeing are that it was not weather conditions, but sheer incompetence, which was bogging Roosky forces down.



Here's hoping today's talks are productive for Zelensky and the Ukrainians.

That idea dampens the possibility of China arbitrating a ceasefire in Ukraine (as has been mooted).

I don't trust China. Maybe, if there's going to be peace they want credit for it ... but they definitely want to invade Taiwan and keep hold of Xinjiang and Tibet and Hong Kong and Macau, and to keep Russia as a friend.